While the Presidential race is thrilling and will dominate the media all the way through the conventions, the story that may be unfolding behind the scenes is truly shocking.
Just five months ago the American people preferred the Democratic party to the Republican party to the tune of 50% to 32%. Not only was the Presidential race only happening in the Democratic primary, it was looking like a lock for huge gains in the House and Senate for Democrats.
But the last two months saw a tremendous narrowing of the gap. Once as high as 18 points, it has now narrowed to only 4. According to Rasmussen, if the election were held today 44% of voters would choose the Democrats and 40% the Republicans.
It may only be a statistical blip. But the underlying numbers, if this is truly a trend, provide some great encouragement for Republicans (I am aware of how absurd this sounds).
The Democrats have a 13 point advantage with women while the Republicans have a 6 point advantage with men. So, why would that be encouraging? Because the Republicans have the ability to argue that they will keep the country secure while the Democrats will encourage terrorism by a unilateral withdrawal from Iraq (and maybe Afghanistan).
That's why women voted for Republicans before. It's much more telling to me that men are still leaning Republican.
All signs point to a huge Democratic victory in 2008. Except this trend. We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.
Politics is never dull.
sharp