My view is that oil will continue to drop due to the glut on the market and the reduced expected growth for the next year. I look for $50 or less a barrel before years end and then rising again in the cold months of 2007.
However, one Bloomberg article notes that oil climbed 3.9% in the last week because Nigeria and Venezuela agreed to cut imports to bolster the price. An earlier article had said that OPEC memebers discussed actions they might take if the price got too low and that is what drove prices higher. OPEC has stated that they would act if it got below their target of $65 a barrel - but then some have said that oil is still fairly priced below that.
One recent article stated that oil always goes up in the spring and always comes down in the winter. That columnist was noting the political folly of the Democrats in tying the Republicans to a vaporizing issue. Harold Ford, a Tennessee Senate candidate, even has a slick commercial that was produced and only ran a few times that was all about high gas prices. I hope his judgment is better than that if he becomes a Senator (it wouldn't be and he won't be).
Now, yet another analyst has noted, again found in a Bloomberg article, that the the decline in the price of oil is,
"'80 percent down to funds selling positions and 20 percent down to fundamentals,' said Edward Morse, chief energy economist at New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc."
Just for fun: There are angry liberals who say that Bush dictates the price of oil (strangely this seems to be true when it goes up, but not when it goes down). They must think he's a god.
I guess the real answer is that no one knows for sure where oil is going over the next few months, but there does seem to be consensus that it will rise in the long-term. And that it's a good place to invest. But not such a good place to be dependent.
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